PPR sleepers: Jamaal Williams, Kenyan Drake and four more bargain-bin running backs to target

You don’t have to be a bell-cow back to make a meaningful impact in PPR leagues. In the past six seasons, there’s been an average of 4.3 running backs who averaged fewer than 10 carries per game but still finished in the Top 25 at the position in PPR scoring. That’s a total of 26 running backs in the past half-dozen seasons. And, of those 26 backs, only two carried an ADP inside the Top 30 at the RB position heading into the season in which they netted Top 25 returns — rookie Christian McCaffrey was RB12 in ADP in 2017 and James White was RB25 in 2019. Here’s the list, along with the stats that went into their Top 25 finishes:

The average production from this group was roughly: 109 carries, 476 rush yards, 3 rush TDs, 61 catches, 544 receiving yards, 4 receiving TDs. So who are the running backs currently falling to RB30 or later in ADP who could reasonably push the kind of production we’ve seen from the ROI all-star running backs of the past six years in PPR leagues? Here’s a list of my Top 6 best bets:

(Note: Since I pulled the historical ADP data from FantasyFootballCalculator, I’ll use their 2021 ADP as my reference for the players listed below — ADP listed for said players is where they are being selected at the RB position)

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1. Michael Carter, NYJ (ADP 33) — Carter is the obvious top pick. Competing mostly against Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson, it’s not hard to imagine Carter’s upside for 140+ carries and 50+ catches. Despite his size, he’s an impressive runner between the tackles, displaying patience, vision and a special kind of ability to find daylight even when navigating the tightest of spaces. But what we care about most for PPR purposes is his receiving ability, which has the makings of being special. He’s much more than just a dump-off option in the flat, as his tape at UNC shows an adeptness for working over the middle of the field, with instincts to read the defense and find soft spots in coverage. For a Rome-isn’t-built-in-a-day team like the Jets, Carter could rack up receptions in this offense as the team works from a scoreboard deficit.

2. Jamaal Williams, DET, (ADP 45) — Much to the chagrin of D’Andre Swift enthusiasts, Detroit has talked up Jamaal Williams an awful lot since signing him in free agency, with offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn going so far as to say that Williams is a “classic A back” and that he’ll ride the hot hand between Williams and Swift this season. So, while the fantasy community assumes (based on ADP) that Swift (RB19) is the clear lead option, the team seemingly is not as certain. What could work out well in the long run for both backs is that this team should be pushed to pass often — think mid-600 pass attempts — and it does not possess an alpha-type receiver who will command massive volume. After tight end T.J. Hockenson, there’s a decent chance that Swift could be the next-highest targeted Lions player, and Williams should also see enough looks to rise above 30 receptions for the third consecutive year. Williams has produced mid-level RB3 per-game PPR production in two of his four seasons, including his rookie 2017 campaign when he touched the ball a career-high 178 times. It’s possible that he could eclipse that touches mark with the Lions in 2021.

3. Kenyan Drake, LV (ADP 39) — There’s been so much talk about Drake’s versatility this offseason, and about how he’s been working out as a receiver this summer. It all reminds me of when Kareem Hunt signed with Cleveland, and how they talked the same way in discussing how he’ll fit alongside a run-first, run-often back like Nick Chubb. Interestingly, the Raiders were nearly as run-heavy as Cleveland in 2020, finishing 35 RB carries behind the Browns, but Las Vegas threw to its backs 86 times compared to 60 for the Browns, so the RB total touch discrepancy for last season was only nine more for Cleveland. In PPR formats, the Cleveland backfield averaged 28.7 points to the Raiders’ 25.8 mark. In other words, there’s a clear path to Top 25 upside playing alongside Josh Jacobs, much the same way Hunt has with Chubb.

Check out all our NFL preseason coverage in The Athletic’s 2021 fantasy football draft kit

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4. David Johnson, HOU (ADP 36) — There’s never a shortage of Phillip Lindsay believers. In fact, the evidence of that can be found right here on The Athletic if you check out our sleepers roundtable column, which shows Lindsay listed as the RB sleeper pick by three of the nine experts queried. But the reality is that Denver turned to Melvin Gordon (at a much more exorbitant price) as its featured back in 2020 despite Lindsay delivering back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing campaigns in the two prior seasons. And Denver kicked him completely to the the curb this offseason, trading up to select Javonte Williams and letting Houston sign Lindsay away with a one-year, $3.25 million contract. Pro Football Focus has graded out Lindsay as a below-average pass blocker in each of his three seasons, and he’s graded out among the very worst each of the past two seasons. Meanwhile, Johnson has averaged 52.2 catches per 16 games in his NFL career. And among running backs with at least 10 games played last season, Johnson was 14th in PPR points per game. As the established veteran with the best passing-game profile of the group — which will be a priority for a team that might not end up as a favorite for any of its 17 games in 2021 — it shouldn’t be a surprise if Houston keeps Johnson in the lead backfield role. And even if he cedes more volume to backups (like Lindsay, or Rex Burkhead, or Mark Ingram), there’s still likely to be enough touches available, especially via the pass, for Johnson to have a chance to sneak into the back-end of the RB Top 25.

5. James White, NE (ADP 53) — The Patriots seem like they’re circling the wagons a bit in the backfield, with Damien Harris trending toward handling the bulk of the ball-carrying duties and White predominantly handling the receiving down work. The key here is the exit of Rex Burkhead this offseason, who landed in Houston. In his four seasons in New England, Burkhead averaged 37.4 receptions per 16 games played. While that’s not an eye-popping total, it’s a healthy enough amount to get excited about the prospects of White absorbing a good number of those vacated catches. And Harris, who has more skill in the receiving department than he’s often given credit for, could also pick up some extra targets in Burkhead’s absence. If Mac Jones continues to show well and takes over this offense early in the season, his short-to-intermediate accuracy should be a further boon to the New England running backs.

6. Nyheim Hines, IND (ADP 46) — Hines made the above list by finishing RB18 in PPR last season, and he was close to making it for his rookie 2018 campaign, as well, finishing RB28 behind the driving force of 63 receptions (the same number he finished with last season). Of course, losing check-down champ Philip Rivers at QB dampens enthusiasm for Hines, but Carson Wentz, under then OC Frank Reich, in his rookie 2016 season in Philly, targeted Darren Sproles 71 times in 15 games — Sproles hauled in 52 receptions en route to an RB30 overall finish in PPR formats. In other words, even without Rivers, we shouldn’t assume Hines’ production is going to drop off as dramatically as his ADP suggests.

One Very Deep PPR Sleeper

Darrynton Evans, TEN (ADP 60) — In 2018, Dion Lewis caught 59 passes playing in the same backfield as Derrick Henry for a Titans team that threw fewer pass attempts than it has in each of the past two seasons. Yes, Julio Jones is in the fold now, but Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith are gone (157 combined targets), and Evans, who is healthy after missing most of his rookie campaign with injuries, should have an opportunity to pick up some of the vacated targets. The Athletic’s Titans writer Joe Rexrode alluded to that possibility in his pick of Evans as the team’s breakout candidate for 2021:

And Brandon Howard listed Evans as a potential dynasty breakout last year. Evans’ scouting profile shines a favorable light on his skills in a potential third-down capacity and, like Drake, he’s been working out as a receiver this summer. It’s not out of the question that he could end up in a similar role to Lewis in 2018 as the team looks to manage Henry’s workload after averaging 359 touches the past two seasons.

(Top photo: Billie Weiss/Getty Images)

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